What does this mean for the future?

[WhoseGeneration]

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/s ... n-2014.pdf

[michael769]

I don't think it means anything for the future.

In 2011 we say a y-o-y increase in casualties only for 2012 and then 2013 to show even bigger falls. No one would now suggest that 2011's increase was anything more than a statistical blip in what was an otherwise steep downwards trend.

At this time it is impossible to say if this is yet another blip or the start of an upwards trend, but one thing I would point out is that the number is still lower than that of 2 years previously and the 2013 figure was an exceptionally large drop (15%) on the previous year and could itself have been a statistical downwards blip that has been reversed. If we continue to see increases in future years, yes we might have to start to worry, but anyone who tries to read anything will simply mislead themselves as indeed the ONS warn in the report linked:

No single quarter’s figures should be taken in
isolation as an indication of long-term trend, as there are seasonal fluctuations particularly in
the smaller categories of road user.

One thing I will say is that as casualties continue to fall such blips (if it is indeed a blip) will become more and more common.

And lets keep it in perspective, this figure represents a rate of road casualties that is lower than that of 150 years ago, when the horse and cart ruled the roads, and when our population was a tiny fraction of what it is today.

[triquet]

Very true. Be very careful of statistics. In some ways KSI is bottoming out and no matter what is done it won't go much lower, particularly with increasing traffic levels. Note also the increase in cyclist accidents: there has been a large increase in the number of cyclists on the roads for a variety of reasons, and it is not possible to put a reliable figure on this increase in volume as no records exist.

[jont]

Time to re-examine our road safety strategy? Maybe instead of allowing people to continue crashing (just slowly enough that no-one is seriously injured/killed), we move the focus to getting all the inept, indifferent and downright dangerous drivers off the roads altogether?

Would do wonders for congestion too if we could reduce the number of regular road users by say 15%.

[TheInsanity1234]

Time to re-examine our road safety strategy? Maybe instead of allowing people to continue crashing (just slowly enough that no-one is seriously injured/killed), we move the focus to getting all the inept, indifferent and downright dangerous drivers off the roads altogether?

Would do wonders for congestion too if we could reduce the number of regular road users by say 15%.

I don't think reducing the overall number of cars on the road would help to reduce congestion.
What would help though, is teaching people how to drive to the conditions, and maintain a healthy following distance, so when there are speed fluctuations in the roads, people will be able to dampen them and keep traffic flowing, rather than just braking and causing everyone else to brake.

[jont]

I don't think reducing the overall number of cars on the road would help to reduce congestion.

Ironically, you'd miss the quieter periods (school holidays ). I think it's only something like a 10% reduction in cars on the road, but it makes a significant difference to traffic. Somewhere like Bristol is a bit like Heathrow - operating right on the cusp of gridlock. The tiniest problem quickly snowballs out of control. Reducing traffic a few % would give a margin of breathing room (and if you get the worst drivers off the road, it should even reduce the occurrence of problems.) Won't do much about the anti-car council though

[TheInsanity1234]

I don't think reducing the overall number of cars on the road would help to reduce congestion.

Ironically, you'd miss the quieter periods (school holidays ). I think it's only something like a 10% reduction in cars on the road, but it makes a significant difference to traffic. Somewhere like Bristol is a bit like Heathrow - operating right on the cusp of gridlock. The tiniest problem quickly snowballs out of control. Reducing traffic a few % would give a margin of breathing room (and if you get the worst drivers off the road, it should even reduce the occurrence of problems.) Won't do much about the anti-car council though

Actually, I wouldn't, because I'll commute to and from school along some lovely B roads, and I'll be doing some driving during the weekends and that...?

[fungus]

I don't think reducing the overall number of cars on the road would help to reduce congestion.

Ironically, you'd miss the quieter periods (school holidays ). I think it's only something like a 10% reduction in cars on the road, but it makes a significant difference to traffic. Somewhere like Bristol is a bit like Heathrow - operating right on the cusp of gridlock. The tiniest problem quickly snowballs out of control. Reducing traffic a few % would give a margin of breathing room (and if you get the worst drivers off the road, it should even reduce the occurrence of problems.) Won't do much about the anti-car council though

Actually, I wouldn't, because I'll commute to and from school along some lovely B roads, and I'll be doing some driving during the weekends and that...?

IIRC John Prescot stated years ago that school traffic accounted for about 30% of rush hour traffic. I must admit that around here it seems more like 70%, as the roads are remarkebly quiet in the school holidays.

[Silk]

we move the focus to getting all the inept, indifferent and downright dangerous drivers off the roads altogether?

When I make similar suggestions, I get accused of trolling.

[Silk]

Actually, I wouldn't, because I'll commute to and from school along some lovely B roads...?

When I went to school, which was mainly in the 70s, almost everyone walked. The fact that I'd rather have walked than get a lift in my dad's latest embarrassing crock of shite had nothing to do with it.

[triquet]

Many moons ago, when the son and heir of the family overdraft was at a small boarding school in the boondocks of Berkshire, we sometimes delivered him in the ancient Saab 96 V4. He got double brownie points and street cred for this ...

[Ralge]

It could mean that uncontrollable factors like the weather in recent Q1's and/or the recession have had a more statistically significant impact on the figures than other factors.

[Carbon Based]

On roads with a speed limit over 40mph (non-bulit-up roads) there was an 8 per cent increase in the number of fatal or serious accidents and a 2 per cent increase on roads with a speed limit up to and including 40mph (built-up roads).

How would you interpret this?

[triquet]

On roads with a speed limit over 40mph (non-bulit-up roads) there was an 8 per cent increase in the number of fatal or serious accidents and a 2 per cent increase on roads with a speed limit up to and including 40mph (built-up roads).

How would you interpret this?

Statistically insignificant I suspect.

[onlinegenie]

Time to re-examine our road safety strategy? Maybe instead of allowing people to continue crashing (just slowly enough that no-one is seriously injured/killed), we move the focus to getting all the inept, indifferent and downright dangerous drivers off the roads altogether?

I would love to see that happen, but it never will. The government makes too much money out of motorists to ban any except the most dangerous.