Climate change essay

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Postby Gareth » Fri Jan 22, 2010 12:28 pm


martine wrote:
Gareth wrote:Air travel should be subjected to much higher taxes...

Why air travel - it makes a very small contribution to CO2?

I'm not certain that you're correct. For example, an article from just over 2 years ago in the Guardian newspaper suggested Britain's use of air travel was disproportionately high, the figure given for carbon dioxide emissions is consistent with information presented on a UK government website, (even though both sources are woefully out of date), and is about half that resulting from car travel in the UK, but "Scientists say carbon emissions in the atmosphere are at least twice as harmful to the environment as those at sea level" which suggests the harm done to the environment is comparable.

I found another document which discusses these issues, (in Microsoft Word format), which points out that the IPCC say air travel carbon dioxide emissions must be multiplied by about 1.9 because of other harmful emissions ... "As a rough approximation, flying has the same climate changing effect as each passenger in the plane driving their own (smallish) car the same distance".

There is already a high degree of taxation on car use; if the argument is one of preventative measures I see no good reason not to have a similar degree of taxation on air travel per passenger mile.
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Postby MGF » Fri Jan 22, 2010 2:00 pm


Gareth wrote:If man's contribution to climate change is a serious worry we should be aiming to reduce powered personal mobility and the transfer of goods over long distances. Air travel should be subjected to much higher taxes, there should be much heavier taxes for imported goods, and efforts should be made to reduce population size. In this context, at least, it would be a good idea to dismantle the international free trade agreements and encourage countries to apply protectionist tariffs to imported goods.


I disagree with significantly cutting consumption except for wastage. Certainly at this stage. What we need to be doing is changing the way we consume. Our decisions on how to do this may not be the right ones.

I thought vehicle CO2 emissions account for only around 5% of total emissions and air travel a similar amount. As these are personal activities they appear to be promoted more. Perhaps because they are things we can do something about. We need to concentrate on the major causes in my view.

I am certainly not attempting to reduce my weekly mileage by 5 miles.
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Postby Porker » Mon Jan 25, 2010 2:12 pm


Some interesting news stories broke over the weekend.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1245636/Glacier-scientists-says-knew-data-verified.html

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7000063.ece

http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/01/what-tangled-web-we-weave.html

My earlier reference to Wikipedia was purely a bid to save some retyping, unless we believe the illustrative story has been rewritten to suit the "deniers" camp.

I remain sceptical.

regards
P.
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Postby martine » Mon Jan 25, 2010 4:09 pm


Porker wrote:Some interesting news stories broke over the weekend.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1245636/Glacier-scientists-says-knew-data-verified.html

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7000063.ece

http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/01/what-tangled-web-we-weave.html

My earlier reference to Wikipedia was purely a bid to save some retyping, unless we believe the illustrative story has been rewritten to suit the "deniers" camp.

I remain sceptical.

regards
P.

As I said, errors (and subsequent changes in science) will happen on a 3000 page report but does any of this affect the main argument and mean we should do nothing? For me, it does not. You are quite entitled to be 'sceptical' Porker but I would rather the world's governments act now on the strong (for me) possibility of us facing a serious climate change.
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Postby Porker » Mon Jan 25, 2010 5:48 pm


Martin, hi

The Mail on Sunday report says that they knew the information was incorrect but decided to leave it in anyway. That's not an error, it's a deliberate effort to deceive. I find that worrying, as is the un-annotated change to the Stern Report reference in the third link.

Don't get me wrong, I don't want there to be climate-problems if we really are adding to them but equally I don't want to chuck a few hundred billion at what is possibly a non-existent problem when we might need to spend that money elsewhere on a genuine but hitherto undiscovered problem or any of the miriad issues which we know exist. Nor, for that matter, do I want working people to be paying more "green" taxes to address a non-existent problem, if that's what it is.

regards
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Postby martine » Mon Jan 25, 2010 6:21 pm


Porker wrote:Martin, hi

The Mail on Sunday report says that they knew the information was incorrect but decided to leave it in anyway. That's not an error, it's a deliberate effort to deceive. I find that worrying, as is the un-annotated change to the Stern Report reference in the third link.

I really wouldn't trust The Mail on anything - including getting the date right on the front page - it's a scandalous newspaper and worse than The Sun in my opinion...at least you know what you are getting with The Sun, whereas the Mail pretends to be a serious newspaper...but that's another thread!

Even if it was a deliberate effort to decieve - so what? Does that mean the whole thing is tosh and thousands of independent scientists are also wrong? No, all it means is the particular people involved will be ostracised for poor science and the other 2990 pages stand up. It's too easy to pick very specific holes in a summarised report such as this...it won't be the first or last scientific report to have errors...that doesn't mean it doesn't contain some really, really important valid stuff.

You make an important point and you're right, it would be irresponsible to waste huge amounts of dosh except...I think we should take the best advice and act on it now because the consequences of getting it wrong are so high. I would have no problem accepting climate change theory is wrong in 10 years time...the money 'wasted' would have been an insurance for the worst case.

Of course there are seriuos consequences in 'wasting' the money as well and I wouldn't want to understate that either...like so much in life, it's a balance of risk and I'm am willing to go along with the majority of those deemed to be experts. Ultimately it's a 'trust' thing...I trust scientific methods and debate - I am not a climate scientist (in case you didn't know :roll: ) and I'd prefer to go along with the majority rather than try and argue a case from a standpoint of relative ignorance.
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Postby Porker » Mon Jan 25, 2010 6:46 pm


I suppose I come at it from a slightly different perspective, in as much as I tend to regard one deception as being indicative of a willingness to deceive, rather than weighing it only in the light of the importance of that deception in isolation.

I am sure the press will give us more data to consider in the coming weeks and months.

P.
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Postby Porker » Mon Jan 25, 2010 8:27 pm


I also thought this (and the PDF linked from within it) was interesting.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/01/climategate_cru_was_but_the_ti.html

P.
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Postby x-Sonia-x » Tue Jan 26, 2010 10:03 pm


Now I wouldnt call meself a scientist....although I could as I do have a Certificate in Social Science :wink: ...but I have carried out 2 research projects (not on climate change though). The first was under strict guidance of the university, the second, which ive just completed, I designed the experiment and carried out the research. Now for me, all research...in any area/subject is relevant. Similarly errors can be made at any level. But what we are talking about here is mainly governments deliberatly deceiving...as they do :twisted: ...and because they do it, the press jump on the band wagon...we all know we cant trust the government!!
Never climb a fence...much easier to sit on it!!
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Postby Gareth » Thu Jan 28, 2010 1:34 pm


Porker wrote:I also thought this (and the PDF linked from within it) was interesting.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/01/climategate_cru_was_but_the_ti.html

The preliminary paper seems to have been completed (pdf) and it makes for interesting reading. It appears that those talking up warming have been using highly selective earth surface readings to back up their arguments, and that the presumably neutral satellite temperature readings are being discounted as unrepresentative of the 'truth' being pushed on us.
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Postby Porker » Thu Jan 28, 2010 7:24 pm

Porker
 
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Postby Porker » Thu Jan 28, 2010 8:01 pm


Gareth wrote:The preliminary paper seems to have been url=http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/surface_temp.pdf]completed[/url] (pdf) and it makes for interesting reading. It appears that those talking up warming have been using highly selective earth surface readings to back up their arguments, and that the presumably neutral satellite temperature readings are being discounted as unrepresentative of the 'truth' being pushed on us.


Hmmm - I expect that might be a possible explanation for UEA CRU's reluctance to publish the data even in modified form. Wasn't there some talk about them also having lost or destroyed the original data as well?

The paper referenced also contains this rather apposite quotation from Albert Einstein:

"Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either."

regards
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Postby x-Sonia-x » Thu Jan 28, 2010 8:57 pm


Porker wrote:"Anyone who doesn't take truth seriously in small matters cannot be trusted in large ones either."


Im very much a quote person, and I really like this one 8)
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Postby Porker » Thu Jan 28, 2010 9:46 pm


This paper by Ross McKitrick would also argue that data contamination is responsible for a significant proportion of apparent temperature change:

http://bit.ly/bxhpHt

regards
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Postby martine » Thu Jan 28, 2010 11:18 pm

Martin - Bristol IAM: IMI National Observer and Group Secretary, DSA: ADI, Fleet, RoSPA (Dip)
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