KSI's up

[Ancient]

'Flow' should be for bypasses and properly designed through routes which do not cut villages in half: Instead the UK has a habit of using it on high streets and residential roads.

[triquet]

I find this interesting. This weekend we've driven Abingdon / Letchworth / York and back again, probably a total of 10-12 hours on the road. We went up Friday and back this morning with plenty of comfort stops BUT:

The sheer amount of traffic out there is amazing. It's getting worse by the minute, and behaviour is seriously affected by roadworks and all sorts of extraneous happenings. I'm not in the least surprised that KSI is up.

[TheInsanity1234]

To be honest, I think we've reached the lowest possible number of KSI's without completely banning cars from the road altogether.

This does mean everyone runs around screaming because we've killed a few more people than intended in the last few months, but if we were to plot a line graph, then you might find that the graph is tending towards a limit, and consequently won't go much lower.

[triquet]

To be honest, I think we've reached the lowest possible number of KSI's without completely banning cars from the road altogether.

This does mean everyone runs around screaming because we've killed a few more people than intended in the last few months, but if we were to plot a line graph, then you might find that the graph is tending towards a limit, and consequently won't go much lower.

Compared with most other countries we're doing remarkably well.

[Carbon Based]

We may well be doing well comparatively, and the number may be bottoming out without a massive change in tactics but politics tends to react to slightly simpler criteria.

If you want to change the current trend, you will have to offer an alternative that becomes attractive vote wise to whichever party you choose to align with.

[michael769]

It's not directly explainable by the economy continuing to recover apparently but it could be a statistical blip of course - although the trend has been up for several quarters running.

I think it is still too early to conclude that KSIs are up, I'd want to see 24 months of consistent rises before I call that one.

The main reason I take this view is that we had 2 years of exceptional drops in the KSI figures - it may be that those drops were statistical blips and we are now regressing back to the long term trend which hopefully remains on a downwards trajectory.

[TripleS]

Officially announced today the UK's road Killed and Seriously Injured stats are up for the year-ending Sept '14.

http://fleetworld.co.uk/news/2015/Feb/Road-deaths-rise-for-first-time-in-30-years/0434018342

It's not directly explainable by the economy continuing to recover apparently but it could be a statistical blip of course - although the trend has been up for several quarters running.

Predictably BRAKE have called for more, lower speed limits...if the medicine doesn't work then make the medicine stronger I guess:

Brake is calling on all political parties to make three, key general election manifesto commitments to get casualties falling again and enable everyone to get around safely, sustainably and actively:

• Change the default urban speed limit to 20mph to protect people on foot and bike, and allow everyone to walk and cycle without fear.
• Introduce graduated driver licensing, to allow new drivers to build skills and experience gradually while exposed to less danger.
• Introduce a zero-tolerance drink drive limit of 20mg per 100ml of blood, to stamp out the menace of drink driving once and for all.

Personally I would support 2 of their 3 proposals and vehemently challenge the 3rd - I'm sure you can guess which.

I would certainly support the second of their proposals, depending on the details, but I've no time for the other two, and I don't think they would do anything to improve the situation in safety terms. What they would do is impose further restrictions on many people who are not causing a problem; and that is completely unacceptable.

It has long been my feeling that although Brake may genuinely wish to improve road safety, as do most of us, they have no concern for the curtailment of freedoms that may result from their measures. To me this is not the way to proceed.

[martine]

It's not directly explainable by the economy continuing to recover apparently but it could be a statistical blip of course - although the trend has been up for several quarters running.

I think it is still too early to conclude that KSIs are up, I'd want to see 24 months of consistent rises before I call that one.

The main reason I take this view is that we had 2 years of exceptional drops in the KSI figures - it may be that those drops were statistical blips and we are now regressing back to the long term trend which hopefully remains on a downwards trajectory.

Any statisticians here? Are 4 quarters of increases in KSIs significant, statistically speaking?

[Gromit37]

Personally I think cyclists should be obliged to participate in training, pass a test before being allowed on the road, the bike to have an ID plate and have insurance.

The list of idiotic actions I've seen cyclists perform is endless. In ratio to car drivers, if drivers acted the same there would be carnage on the roads.

This is definitely a European problem, after spending 9 years in Italy and 4 in Germany I've seen the same stupid and dangerous antics; Berlin was definitely the worst!

Whilst I agree that there are some stupid people riding bicycles, many of them probably also drive cars too. Do they suddenly become less stupid when they drive?

I'm afraid your suggestions, apart from basic training are unworkable and unenforceable. You would put more people off cycling, you would kill off recreational cycling, kids from poorer families would be denied the chance to cycle. How do you make younger riders legally responsible for their riding in the same way as an adult?

Those people who give up cycling may turn to driving instead, making roads busier. What about the health aspects of cycling?

Do you belong to BRAKE by any chance?

[Ralge]

It's not directly explainable by the economy continuing to recover apparently but it could be a statistical blip of course - although the trend has been up for several quarters running.

I think it is still too early to conclude that KSIs are up, I'd want to see 24 months of consistent rises before I call that one.

The main reason I take this view is that we had 2 years of exceptional drops in the KSI figures - it may be that those drops were statistical blips and we are now regressing back to the long term trend which hopefully remains on a downwards trajectory.

Any statisticians here? Are 4 quarters of increases in KSIs significant, statistically speaking?

I am not and wouldn't dream of doing the calculations on statistical significance.
I'll go with a gut reaction instead. The annual figures (I've never analysed quarters) have seen year-on-year reductions since 2004 except for just one year. It IS therefore significant in my book. What happened? Weather, economic activity .... ? Dunno
We have probably got to the stage where we are bumping along the bottom of the graph just like 1994-2004 where +/- 3500 died each year. Nobody has explained why the reductions from 1966 bottomed out.
Anyone who offers a single reason for the current figures speaks with forked tongue because the same reason needs to work across the Channel.

[Kimosabe]

Hmmmm....So it's (mainly) about 'Speeeeeed' you say? I found what I could glean from the data sets (i'm just above basic ability) here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... ry-factors

[irf520]

I believe it is the case that 20 limits worked well in London despite a lot of non-compliance, no doubt, and, as a result, they are bound to proliferate outside of the capital.

What information do you have on that? I find 20's on through routes in London random confusing and maddening. This is mainly due to inappropriate implementation. I am entirely happy with 20's in narrow residential streets.

http://www.tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/do ... london.pdf

This document talks about "20mph Zones". These are, for the most part, residential back streets which are peppered with so many speed bumps that you would have a job getting much over 20mph anyway. Things are now being taken a stage further, with 4 boroughs having imposed blanket 20mph speed limits on all the roads under their control (including A roads, but not roads under TFL rather than borough management). As someone who drives round London frequently I can say that these 20mph limits on main roads have a compliance rate of essentially zero. This is hardly surprising when you consider that roads like this now have a 20mph speed limit:

https://maps.google.com/maps?ie=UTF8&ll ... 43,,0,3.63

[Horse]

To be honest, I think we've reached the lowest possible number of KSI's without completely banning cars from the road altogether.

This does mean everyone runs around screaming because we've killed a few more people than intended in the last few months, but if we were to plot a line graph, then you might find that the graph is tending towards a limit, and consequently won't go much lower.

Have a Google for 'Smeed'. He had a theory that the numbers of casualties was in inverse relation to the ratio of vehiclespopulation of a country. Or similar

The UK is one of the few (IIRC) countries to be ahead (ie below) the predicted curve.

[Silk]

The UK is one of the few (IIRC) countries to be ahead (ie below) the predicted curve.

Last time I said it, I got the usual (bad) jokes, but is there any evidence that favours countries that drive on the left as opposed to the right with regards to road safety?

I'm sure I've heard somewhere that it makes a difference. Something to do with the automatic tendency of right-handed humans to go to the left in the face of oncoming danger, or whatever.

[Horse]

Not heard anthing about that - I'll ask around.